The attacks launched by Turkey, in cooperation with the KDP, against the Zap, Metina and Avaşin regions of Federated Kurdistan on April 17, 2022, continue. While meeting traffic has intensified in the Hewlêr-Baghdad-Ankara triangle in the last month, it is stated that Turkey is preparing to launch a new and comprehensive attack against the region. After the last cabinet meeting held on March 4, AKP Chair and President Tayyip Erdoğan said: "We will have resolved the issue regarding our Iraqi borders this summer."

 

HIGH CALL TRAFFIC

 

On March 14, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler and MIT Undersecretary Ibrahim Kalın went to Baghdad to meet with government officials in Iraq. Fidan and his delegation met with Iraqi officials here and published a joint statement. In the declaration, which argued that PKK poses a security threat to Turkey and Iraq, it was stated that "The parties have consulted on the measures to be taken against the organization and its extensions that target Turkey using Iraqi territory."

 

Journalist Aziz Köylüoğlu made evaluations about the ongoing negotiations between Turkey and Iraq and the resulting declaration. Köylüoğlu pointed out that Iraq made up a cover to legitimize the attacks.

 

'ANTI-KURDISHNESS'

 

Stating that Turkey is trying to persuade Iraq through anti-Kurdishness, journalist Köylüoğlu reminded that there has been a diplomatic traffic between Iraq and Turkey for a long time. Köylüoğlu said: “This diplomatic traffic has intensified recently. Especially the Minister of Foreign Affairs, MIT and the Minister of Defense carried out intense diplomacy traffic in Southern Kurdistan. Speaking of Southern Kurdistan, they held meetings with KDP officials. In Turkey's words, when they say 'security', they are talking about the Kurds. This can also be interpreted as anti-Kurdish sentiment. Because Turkey has an anti-Kurdish policy in the Middle East and the World."

 

'COVER TO LEGITIMATE ATTACKS'

 

Noting that the anti-Kurdish policy is currently concentrated in Iraq, Rojava, Southern Kurdistan and Northern Kurdistan, Köylüoğlu said: “This was also a final declaration. There are prominent headings in this final declaration. One of these headings is the heading of economy. Essentially, Turkey tried to persuade Iraq on the basis of its anti-Kurdish sentiment, mostly through this economic title. The most interesting part is that this meeting, based on Iraq's anti-Kurdish sentiment, was chaired by Fuat Hussein, a Kurd and the Iraqi Foreign Minister. With this final declaration, it is now clear that the PKK is among the banned organizations. PKK is not a legal organization in Iraq, nor was it a legal party in the past. It was not an organization established according to the Iraqi constitution and laws. It was not a party operating within Iraq. When considered in this context, its declaration can also be considered as declaring what exists. But of course, we can also interpret this emphasis on this concept as legitimizing the invasion of Iraq. We do not know how much the Iraqi officials perceived this, how much they did not perceive it, or how serious they were about the concepts when making these agreements and making these statements. However, this is a cover to legitimize the Turkish state's attacks in Iraq and Southern Kurdistan.”

 

'IRAQ OPENED THE DOOR TO ATTACKS'

 

Stating that Iraq handed over some powers to Turkey with the published declaration, Köylüoğlu said: “The specified framework can be interpreted as PKK being among the banned organizations and Turkey being able to attack anywhere and basing its attacks on this. Turkey's invasion attacks in Southern Kurdistan are evaluated as follows; Saddam Hussein once made an agreement that allowed both states to carry out operations against their opponents 5 kilometers into Iraq. Turkey still continues its attacks in Southern Kurdistan based on that agreement. This current agreement will provide Turkey with the opportunity to attack by going deeper into Iraq. This means that the occupation will deepen further or there will be attacks further into Iraq. Turkey will base its attacks on this latest agreement and the article in the final declaration. If Iraq reacts to the Turks advancing to the Mosul plain tomorrow, Turkey will say this; 'You have included the PKK in the list of banned organizations, I am making an attack against the PKK there, this is something that is within our agreement.' It will render all Iraq's reactions futile. Iraq has now opened the door to invasion, knowingly or unknowingly, for the Turkish state's invasion attacks against the depths of Southern Kurdistan and Iraq."

 

'IRAQ DID NOT HAVE A CLEAR REACTION TO THE ATTACKS'

 

Reminding that Iraq had not taken a clear stance against the attacks on the region before, Köylüoğlu said: “From the beginning, Iraq did not give a serious reaction to these attacks of Turkey. It reacted a little, especially to the incident in Zaxo Perex, which caused the death of 9 citizens, also because they were Arabs, and requested an emergency meeting with the United Nations (UN). But apart from that, there was no reaction from Iraq towards the occupation of Southern Kurdistan. In fact, it have demands from Turkey due to the water issue. Turkey did not meet these demands. For this reason, Iraq occasionally reacted to this invasion due to this water problem and made statements, but did not take any practical approach."

 

'IT WILL EXPAND ITS ATTACK GEOGRAPHY'

 

Stating that Iraq gave approval for the occupation of its lands and that Turkey expanded the geography of its attack, Köylüoğlu said: “I do not think that Iraq will actually participate in Turkey's invasion plan. If it does so, it will create a position that will support its own occupation. I don't think Iraq will get involved in such a thing and it won't upset the balance too much. I do not think that the Turkish state will launch any more attacks than the current ones. The Turkish state used all the arguments against the Kurdish freedom movement and they ran out of new arguments. It can only expand the geography of its current attacks. This situation will also harm it. Because as the geography expands, counter-attacks against these attacks will become more intense. In other words, the Kurdish freedom movement will resist more and there will be more opportunities to organize counter-actions. As Turkey expands its geography, it will have difficulty in ensuring coordination. As geography expands, it will become more vulnerable to counterattacks. What new can the Turkish state do? When we look at the past, it was using banned bombs and chemical weapons in the tunnels and using practically all types of combat vehicles. When considered in the context of war, Turkey does not have a serious new argument. At most, it can expand the conflict area. This is also a dual situation. If it expands its conflict geography, it will be exposed to more attacks. This will bring great burden and loss to itself.”

 

SECURITY OF THE ROAD TO DEVELOPMENT

 

Saying that it accepts the policy that Iraq's development path can be secured by the liquidation of the PKK, Köylüoğlu said: "One of the main reasons for forcing Iraq to an agreement is the Iraq development path project. The Iraq development path is Turkey's second strategic line. From the Persian Gulf to Southern Kurdistan. There is a road plan that will bypass the Kurdistan Region and connect to Turkey. Because this Iraqi development path is also a move to eliminate the status of Southern Kurdistan. This is one of its biggest goals. It supports the Iraqi development path. However, Turkey needs more of this path. Turkey has presented Iraq as an argument that the security of Iraq's development path can only be achieved by eliminating the PKK. Most likely, the main purpose of this latest joint statement is that the security of Iraq's development path can only be achieved by eliminating the PKK. or the marginalization of the PKK in the region. It is highly likely that Iraq made its last statement in this context. In my opinion, these latest statements can also be evaluated in the context of psychological warfare. Everyone knows that PKK is not a threat to Iraq. Iraq has clearly stated this in the past. During the fight against ISIS, the PKK went deep into Iraq and fought against ISIS there. The then Prime Minister Haydar Ebadi thanked the PKK. Iraq knows very well that the PKK does not pose any threat to them. But as of now, it wants to find a balance with Turkey and bring it to an agreement. It wants to create a balance with Turkey both for Iraq's development path and for commercial relations. When this framework is considered, joint standing committees will be formed and they will meet on a daily basis. These joint standing committees may meet from time to time. This kind of situation may develop." 

 

'KDP IS GREATLY MISTAKEN'

 

Noting that it is not possible for Iraq to enter into a war against the PKK and the Kurds, Köylüoğlu said: "Iraq will not enter into a war against the Kurds or the PKK, but it can support Turkey. It can open intelligence and similar areas to Turkey. Erdoğan's arrival in Iraq shows that there is agreement on certain points. This shows that a hot spring awaits us in Southern Kurdistan. Turkey may attempt a new conflict and attack deep into Southern Kurdistan. But is this only limited to this? In my opinion, one of Turkey's aims is to occupy the entire Southern Kurdistan. This includes annexation, which includes Mosul and Kirkuk completely. It may be that it is having a discussion with the Iraqis behind secret doors. Iraq They have long wanted the federal system to be abolished and a centralized system to be established. By turning the crises in Southern Kurdistan to their advantage, they started to diminish their gains in Southern Kurdistan through the Federal Court. Turkey may also have made an offer to Iraq behind secret doors. This agreement will be a great loss for the Kurds. Kurdish gains in Southern Kurdistan are also eliminated. Here we also see KDP's active support for Turkey. In particular, the Minister of Internal Affairs of the Federated Kurdistan Region, Rêber Ehmed, also attended that meeting. They also think like this; They say, 'If we get along well with Turkey, we will preserve our gains in Iraq,' but they are greatly mistaken. The biggest threat to our gains is Turkey itself." 

 

MA / Zeynep Durgut